LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WHAS11) -- In past years, the 100-point winner of the UAE Derby was for most Kentucky Derby handicappers, a throwaway. It was a not so successful effort to bring an international flavor to Derby Day.
Whether it was the long trip from Dubai, the questionable quality of the UAE field, or the change in racing surface, the Dubai shippers made little impact on the first Saturday in May.
Who can forget Thunder Snow hopping out of the gate last year, trying to throw his rider onto a wet track that he had never experienced? But that was last year. This year, Dubai may produce the Derby favorite.
As stakes races go, Mendelssohn's performance in the UAE Derby was a concerto. The son of Scat Daddy wired the field by about somewhere between 17 and 22 lengths. There was so much room between the first and second place that the 106 Beyer Speed Figure seems very believable.
But now, can trainer Aiden O'Brien ship in from Ireland and win at Churchill Downs. Actually, he's already done something like that. This is the same horse that flew to San Diego and won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.
Turf? Dirt? It seems to make little difference to Mendelssohn, who is now at the top of the Derby Top Twenty.
1. Mendelssohn
It's a testament to how impressive the performance was in Dubai, that this horse leaps into the first place, on the same weekend that Audible romped in the Florida Derby. But the UAE Derby was a track record and perhaps three lengths faster than any American horse has run this year. There's going to be high drama when O'Brien ships in a couple of days before the Derby.
2. Bolt d'Oro
With his main rival, McKinzie, out of the Santa Anita Derby with an injury, Bolt d'Oro looks like the class of the West Coast unless Bob Baffert comes up with big surprise in Justify. This son of Medaglia d'Oro already has enough points to make the Derby. He'll be the probable favorite on the first Saturday in May unless he throws in a real clunker at Santa Anita.
3. Justify
Which brings us to another theme for this Kentucky Derby. The Curse of Apollo is in jeopardy. Double jeopardy. Justify is one of two Derby contenders, who did not race as a two-year-old.
And, of course, the last unraced two-year-old to win the Derby was Apollo in 1882. That's a real curse. The Santa Anita Derby will be his first stakes race for Justify but his first two races have been crazy fast.
4. Magnum Moon
Apollo is also looking over his should at another lightly raced colt, Magnum Moon, the winner of the Rebel Stakes. Todd Pletcher has been having a great deal of success in getting horses to the Derby with a very light racing schedule (see Always Dreaming 2017). Magnum Moon got a 97 Beyer in the Rebel and will probably return in the Arkansas Derby.
5. Audible
The win in the Florida Derby was not as spectacular as Mendelssohn's romp in Dubai but it was good enough to put Audible in the Derby starting gate. But, is distance a problem? Audible is by a terrific sire, Into Mischief, but the pedigree has limitations. The Dosage Index is 5.00. So be advised.
6. Quip
The winner of the Tampa Bay Derby is by Distorted Humor and if it rains on Derby Day, run to the windows. He won at Tampa at 19 to 1, so it was a bit of a surprise. It looks like trainer Rodolphe Brisset will train this colt up to the Derby and Tampa Bay horses usually transfer their form very well to the Churchill track.
7. Noble Indy
Seems like yesterday that Take Charge Indy was disappointing me in the Kentucky Derby and now here comes an offspring who already has the Louisiana Derby on his resume. This is another lightly race Pletcher colt, owned by WinStar et al, who has three wins in four starts. He'll need to improve but anything is possible.
8. Lone Sailor
Lone Sailor has only one win in eight starts but his last was a runner-up in the Louisiana Derby. If you believe in the Curse of Apollo, then this Tom Amoss trainee has five starts as a two-year-old. And he only lost at the Fairgrounds by a neck. The Sailor will need a boatload of improvement to win the Derby but his pedigree from the A.P. Indy line, makes it possible.
9. Enticed
He's a bit under the radar even though he's 5th on the Derby points list with 63.
Enticed got most of his points by winning the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct but he also won the Jockey Club for two-year-olds last fall at Churchill. The son of Medaglia d’Oro is out of a Mineshaft mare and that pedigree should work for the distance. Kiaran McLaughlin trains for Godolphin.
10. Solomini
With McKinzie on the sidelines, the Baffert barn is still left with some pretty good Derby horses and Solomini always hits the board. He only has a maiden win but he won the Cash Call Futurity and was disqualified to 3rd. He has one more prep race to come and already has 34. This Curlin colt is ready for a break-out race.
11. Good Magic
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner has 34 points and trainer Chad Brown is hoping for a big performance and more points in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. After a ho-hum 2018 debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Brown decided to wait for Lexington. Now the question is: Will the Good Magic return or has this horse been passed by faster developing three-year-olds?
12. My Boy Jack
This choice depends on how much you value the Louisiana Derby. The Fairgrounds contingent has not been strong in recent years, in fact, Grindstone was the last to win the Kentucky Derby more than 20 years ago. But if you like Noble Indy, then this guy was a very close third. The Desormeaux brothers train and ride.
13. Bravazo
This one is hard to figure. Bravazo has three wins including the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes. Then he throws in a clunker and finishes 8th in the Louisiana Derby. Still, his 54 points probably get him in the Derby field and if he's in the starting gate, trainer D. Wayne Lukas thinks he's got a shot. We all remember Charismatic.
14. Hofburg
He didn't break his maiden until March 3 and then was the only horse that could hear Audible down the stretch at the Florida Derby. 40 points usually gets you in the field but his three-race resume is not much of a foundation for the mile and a quarter.
15. Blended Citizen
Can a contender still take the Polytrack road to the Derby? Well, not all the way but Blended Citizen is using the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway as a springboard to the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. The Doug O'Neill trainee has 22 Derby points. He's a half-brother to Lookin at Lee, who was second in the Derby last year.
16. Gronkowski
This is the winner of what's called "the European Road to the Kentucky Derby."
And trainer Jeremy Noseda says the colt is definitely coming to the Derby. Although the football player of the same name has no ownership interest in the horse, the owner of the Lonhro colt is said to be a big Patriots fans. This may be the biggest challenge on the board for handicappers. The horse has won all three starts this year but on synthetic surfaces.
17. Runaway Ghost
As we learned in 2009, never overlook the horse coming in from Sunland Park. This time it's Grade 3 Sunland Derby winner Runaway Ghost, who has won four of eight races. Trainer Todd Fincher is in the top ten with 50 points and the Ghostzapper pedigree is made for the distance.
18. Flameaway
Another Scat Daddy contender with five wins pretty much all over the country.
Flameaway won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay and was second in the Tampa Bay Derby. Mark Casse is the trainer, and his three-year-old has won races at Woodbine, Saratoga, Keeneland, Gulfstream and Tampa. He's a multiple graded stakes winner but he may not be Grade one caliber.
19. Firenze Fire
This may be the classic example of a horse that peaked too early. He won the prestigious Champagne Stakes as a two-year-old and then took the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct in January. In the Gotham, Firenze Fire was a fading fourth but a comeback in the Wood Memorial is possible. He's on the bubble with 29 Derby points.
20. Snapper Sinclair
Steve Asmussen has several horses on the Derby bubble and this is one of them. But you could also throw in Combatant, Reride,and Dream Baby Dream.
At the end of the list it's all about horses that could still make the field with a big performance in the Bluegrass Stakes, the Wood Memorial, The Santa Anita Derby, the Arkansas Derby and the Lexington.
And on a cold night in April, it's hard to imagine that Derby is just five weeks away.
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