LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Wednesday will definitely be wet, and at times windy. Gusty winds are expected with steady rain early, then after a brief break in the wet weather, a line of storms will be possible late afternoon into early evening.
Thankfully, we don't have all of the ingredients for a big severe weather outbreak, but winds aloft will be quite strong, and any storm could tap into those winds causing isolated damaging gusts.
Notice on our Futurecast map below the activity around 6:00 pm. Generally, it looks like from around 4:00 pm to 8:00 pm will be the highest chance of strong storms.
Speaking of severe weather ingredients, one major thing we're lacking is Instability, or the fuel for storms. The map below shows low levels of what we call CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), and it's not impressive.
While the Instability is low, the jet stream winds are high! Sometimes all you need is a good downpour to act as a conduit to channel those strong winds to the ground. So, again, we'll just need to watch this broken line closely as it moves through late Wednesday.
The Storm Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service that looks for where severe weather may occur has our area in just a Marginal Risk, or level 1 out of 5 on the severe weather risk scale. So, overall, a low severe weather risk.
Rainfall totals of 1-2" inches are possible for much of the area, especially along and north of the Ohio River. Lighter amounts likely farther south and southeast. This rain will occur over a long enough period of time that flooding is not a big concern.
Thankfully, it will be dry for Thanksgiving! Have a safe holiday!