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February closes with rain, a chance for snow, and cooler temps

It's been a fantastic weekend, but the final days of February are going to be active.
Credit: WHAS

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Ahhhh sunshine! How much we enjoy you. It’s been a very nice last few days across the area, but changes are on the horizon as February nears its end. Rain is a certainty, but could we see some snowflakes too?

  • Forecast at-a-glance:
  • Sunday will be mild as clouds slowly increase
  • A couple waves of rain Monday will make for a wet commute to and from work
  • More rain is expected Wednesday, with light snow possible Wednesday night
  • Temperatures turn cooler to close out February

Weather setup: High pressure has dominated the southeastern United States for the past couple of days and have allowed for 100% sunshine across the Ohio Valley. It’s also resulted in some warmer temperatures. Fun fact: our average high temperature is now 50° and only goes up from here! We’ll continue to experience 50s for the next few days.

Credit: WHAS

Our attention turns to the desert southwest where a storm recently moved on shore. This storm is our rain-maker for Monday. It will gather strength after it passes over the southern Rockies Sunday and approaches us to start the week. Ahead of the storm we’ll see high clouds start to move in, followed by some low level clouds in the afternoon. Winds will be slightly breezy from the southwest 10-15 mph.

Credit: WHAS

Sunday will stay dry, but rain will be on the way. Precipitation will begin in Kentuckiana early Monday morning after midnight. The first wave of rain will make for a wet commute into work. We should see a brief break in the activity ahead of the cold front as it nears, then round two will begin in the afternoon, so the commute home will likely be wet as well. Rain and clouds will result in cooler temperatures in the low 50s, but that’s seasonable.

Credit: WHAS
Credit: WHAS

As drier air pushes in Monday night, rain will start to end. Scattered showers will linger into primarily Tuesday morning with much of Tuesday staying dry, but fairly cloudy. Temperatures should hold steady in the middle 50s. This storm will reach its maturity as it exits to the northeast into a powerhouse of a storm along the U.S./Canada border. Much colder air will start to fill in starting Wednesday as moisture wraps around the storm and brings more rain back to the area Wednesday. Stay tuned, we’ll come back to the rest of the week.

How much rain? For the Monday-Tuesday event, models are indicating amounts around ¾” to 1” across the region. Several dry days have allowed rivers to recede well within their banks, and given the time scale of that rain fall, flooding is not an immediate concern. The rain for Wednesday might give us an additional quarter inch or so.

Credit: WHAS

The chance for snow: Back to Wednesday and a chance for snow. The snow meter is set for “possible,” which means it’s possible we’ll see snowflakes. Snowflakes. As cold air rushes in Wednesday evening, any precipitation around stands a good chance of converting to snow by Wednesday night and perhaps early Thursday morning. As has been the case all winter, warm temperatures have kept the ground warm, which means if any snow stuck to the ground, it wouldn’t last long as highs Thursday will be above freezing. We’ll keep an eye on the snow potential. We need to get through Monday first.

Credit: WHAS
Another round of rain is likely for Wednesday before cold air arrives and potentially change some rain over to snow.
Credit: WHAS
Light snow showers are possible later Wednesday into the night.

Long term: As mentioned earlier, our average high temperature is now 50 degrees. We’ll be a good 15 degrees below that come Thursday as temperatures look to get stuck in the 30s. Thursday is also setting up to be quite windy. Looking at the surface map we see tightly backed isobars as the center of the storm churns to our north. Remember, isobars are lines of equal pressure. The closer isobars (the thin black lines) are to each other, the stronger the wind. Thursday will already be cold, but gusty winds will make it feel like the heart of winter.

Credit: WHAS
Windy conditions anticipated Thursday

The last few days of the month appear calm. Models have gone back and forth on the potential for a quick clipper system Friday or Saturday that could bring a brief spit of rain, but for now we’ve left the forecast dry and cool in the 40s. March is going to be a big transition month as we near the official start of spring (meteorological spring starts March 1st). Will temperatures warm, or will we get an early March cold blast? We’ll have a better idea as we end next week.

Meteorologist Alden German
Facebook: Facebook.com/AldenGermanWX | Twitter: @WXAlden

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