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Josephine & area off East Coast being monitored, no threats to the Gulf

Beyond Josephine, there is one other area being watched off the coast of North Carolina. There are currently no threats to the Gulf of Mexico.

NEW ORLEANS — Eye on the Tropics:

Tropical Storm Josephine continues to struggle against dry air and shear. It will move north of the Lesser Antilles as it start to take a more northerly turn by this weekend. It will head towards Bermuda where it is expected to weaken.

An area is being monitored off the North Carolina coast and has a medium chance of development. It is heading northeast away from the United States.

There are currently no threats to the Gulf of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

There is a pattern called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is a fluctuation of favorable and unfavorable states for tropical development across the globe. This favorable/unfavorable pattern shifts every few weeks. For the next few weeks, the more favorable region is over the Pacific, but toward the end of August and into September, this pattern will shift over the Atlantic. That doesn't mean you won't see ANY development over a particular basin when in an "unfavorable" phase, but when in "favorable" it is usually when you see multiple storms at a time and also when you see the chance for more powerful storms. So we'll be more favorable as we near the peak of the season. Stay tuned.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Why late August into September could turn very active in the tropics

HURRICANE CENTER: Latest track, radar, and spaghetti models

RELATED: What is a Potential Tropical Cyclone?

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HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST TO BECOME "EXTREMELY ACTIVE"

NOAA released their August hurricane season forecast update and calls for an 'Extremely Active' season. The forecast calls for 19-25 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major. These numbers already include the nine named storms and two hurricanes. 

The reasons for the extremely active season: 

• Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean

• Enhanced West African Monsoon (rainy) season - causes tropical waves

• Possible La Nina forming in the months ahead

• Reduced wind shear over the Atlantic Basin - allows storms to develop

Now is the time to be prepared. Typically, the season becomes more active in the next few weeks with the peak on September 10th. 

The expert forecasters at Colorado State have issued their August update on the 2020 hurricane season. Their forecast now calls for 24 named storms (including the nine already), 12 hurricanes (including the two already) and five major hurricanes. 

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That's an increase of four named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane.

Should there be 24 named storms, they would run out of names and have to go to the Greek alphabet, like they did in 2005. 

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Credit: Payton Malone

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