High risk for a severe weather outbreak!

High risk for a severe weather outbreak!

High risk for a severe weather outbreak!

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by Ben Pine

WHAS11.com

Posted on May 25, 2011 at 11:08 AM

Updated Wednesday, May 25 at 12:41 PM

Our western half of our area is now under a a High Risk and the eastern half under a Moderate Risk of severe weather. 

Be ready for severe weather late today and tonight, especially after 6pm.  Damaging winds and tornadoes possible.  Review your severe weather safety plan.

...SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLY
   INTO THE OH VLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

   
   POTENT KS UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO WRN MO LATE TODAY...AND
   INTO WRN IL EARLY THU...AS ASSOCIATED BELT OF 70+ KT MID LVL FLOW
   SWEEPS E/NE FROM THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS.
   AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS SHOULD TRACK E INTO CNTRL
   MO BY TNGT...AND INTO CNTRL IL EARLY THU.  A SERIES OF CONFLUENCE
   AXES/WEAK COLD FRONTS IN THE SRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WILL MOVE
   STEADILY E ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLYS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
   THU.  E OF THE LOW...FRONT NOW EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/IND
   SHOULD ADVANCE N/NEWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN MI AND THE LWR GRT
   LKS.
  
   ...OZARKS INTO THE MID/LWR MS AND OH VLYS TODAY/TONIGHT...
   STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITHIN DRY SLOT OF
   SYSTEM UPR LOW AS THAT SYSTEM CONTINUES STEADILY EWD.  BY EARLY TO
   MID AFTN...SBCAPE SHOULD BE AOA 2500 J/KG OVER A BROAD CORRIDOR S OF
   WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL IL/IND SWD INTO THE LWR MS... WITH HIGHER
   VALUES POSSIBLE IN AXIS OF RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
   MS DELTA REGION OF AR/MS/TN.
  
   SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ON LEAD WIND
   SHIFT/COLD FRONT OVER THE MO/AR OZARKS BY EARLY AFTN...WITH OTHER
   STORMS LIKELY TO FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME OR PERHAPS A BIT LATER
   ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN IL SSW INTO SE
   MO/ERN AR/WRN TN.  ISOLD DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN
   AND EVE SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SE TX AND LA.
  
   STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM AR/TN NWD WILL BE AUGMENTED BY ASCENT/MID LVL
   COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE NOW ENTERING NW AR.  AS THIS
   FEATURE CONTINUES PIVOTING NEWD...ASSOCIATED BAND OF 50+ KT WSWLY TO
   SWLY 700 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF AR...SE MO...SRN
   IL/IND...AND WRN PORTIONS OF KY/TN...ENHANCING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR.
   AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD CURRENT OF SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST
   AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD AREA WITH PW AOA 1.25
   INCHES FROM THE WRN GULF CST WELL INTO THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS.
  
   COMBINATION OF BROAD...MOISTURE-RICH...WEAKLY-CAPPED UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS
   SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.  SOME OF
   THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ALONG IL/MO/AR CONFLUENCE BAND...COULD
   YIELD STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES.  STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR
   ALONG W/E WARM FRONT IN IL/IND.  WIND PROFILES AND WEAKLY LINEAR LOW
   LVL FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE
   SEGMENTS.  EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS WITHIN THESE
   STRUCTURES LIKELY WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES IN
   ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL INTO THE NIGHT.  AN EXTENSIVE QLCS
   MAY EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VLYS BY EARLY THU AS THE BAND
   OF STRONGEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SSWLY FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF
   MO/IL UPR TROUGH APPROACHES THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
 

 

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