One of my favorite times in working at WHAS-TV was the spring of 1990, when I sat with Carl Nafzger on the backside at Churchill Downs and talked about a Derby prospect called Unbridled. I’ve always said that Carl had a twinkle in his eye that spring and seemed to sense that he had a winner. Of course, it became one of the most unforgettable Derbies because ABC had attached a microphone to Carl as he called the race for his owner Frances Genter. Now Carl Nafzger has another shot at the Derby with another long time owner, Jim Tafel.  Which bring us to my Derby pick, Street Sense.

Street Sense:  Winner’s of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile usually run into injuries and late maturing three year olds that pass them in the spring.

But Street Sense is still here and Nafzger’s path to the Derby has been perfect. The horse passed a real tough test in Tampa against Any Given Saturday and then got the perfect workout on Polytrack when he lost by a nose in the Bluegrass.  Then Carl brought Street Sense home for a withering five furlong work at Churchill Downs. The twinkle is back.

Scat Daddy:  This is another two year old wonder that I thought would fade with the spring flowers. I was wrong. Scat Daddy has done nothing wrong, He won the Fountain of Youth by a nose and the Florida Derby by more.  Scat Daddy never has achieved an Equibase Speed Figure over a hundred, but he’s a veteran race horse with a lot of seasoning. The Derby shouldn’t scare him and he’s coming off five week rest, just like, just like Barbaro.

Nobiz Like Shobiz:  If Barclay Tagg can teach this horse to run in a straight line, he might have something. He certainly looks the part and will get a lot of wagers just by walking through the paddock.  That “Shobiz horse” has been very consistent this spring but still hasn’t produced the monster race that many think is possible. I have a feeling that sometime this spring or summer, this horse will win a huge race.  But will it be on May 5? He’s been training at Belmont and may fly in and steal this one.

Circular Quay: Is this the Key to Todd Pletcher’s first Derby win?  If so, he’s been lost in Pletcher’s big barn for 8 weeks.  Circular Quay won the Louisiana Derby with a 102 Speed Figure on March 7 and then disappeared.  He was supposed start in the Wood Memorial but was replaced by Any Given Saturday, who I guess, needed the graded stakes money.  Things like this happen when you have five Derby horses.  Quay has been working nicely at Keeneland and seems to run well when he’s fresh. He’s a one run closer, and could get caught in traffic at the Derby. But he will be “real fresh.”

Curlin:   He was the favorite in the last futures pool. He could be the favorite in the Derby.  But he hits town with a lot of question marks.  Curlin ran away from the Arkansas Derby Field by ten and a half lengths.  But that was just his third start, any maybe that Arkansas field was a bunch of allowance horses.

The speed figure was 103, and that’s the best by any horse in this field.  But can he overcome the fact that he wasn’t raced as a two year old.  I have two scenarios for Curlin: Either he runs out of gas at the top of the stretch and finishes 19th or he’s a true freak and wins the Triple Crown. This could be a horse of true greatness, but so far, his resume is very sparce.

Tiago: The half brother to Giacomo is another lightly raced contender with great potential.  Tiago’s record shows improvement in every race, leading up to his shocker in the Santa Anita Derby.  Tiago got a Giacomo type ride from Mike Smith and came from the clouds to beat King of the Roxy and win California’s big Derby prep. He got a 100 speed figure, but Smith will need a good trip on Saturday to find the winner’s circle again. If Tiago is not the winner, he certainly could pass some tiring horses to get a piece of the superfecta. He looked like he was just starting to run in the Santa Anita.

Cowtown Cat:  Yahoo!  The horse has an unglamorous name but a glamorous pedigree. He’s a Distorted Humor out of a Storm Cat mare, and he seems to be another colt that is improving. His 98 speed figure over the deep winter race track at Hawthorne hammered the Illinois Derby field. Then he came to the Polytrack at Keeneland and put in a five furlong work of :58.3. If this guy stays sound, he’s going to make some noise in the three year old division this summer.  I like this horse, but he may not be quite ready to beat the top horses in this field.

Great Hunter:  Which brings us to Doug O’Neill’s trifecta. He has three good horses, all with a chance. And O’Neill says, if one of them runs his best race, he could win the Derby. But “best race” is the catch.  Great Hunter’s best race was his victory over Street Sense and Circular Quay last fall at Keeneland. But this spring, on the same track, he was fifth in the slow motion Bluegrass Stakes.  Getting back to dirt in a more conventional speed race could help Great Hunter and the rest of the O’Neill group.  After the warm up at Keeneland, this is a horse that could be ready for a big effort.

Cobalt Blue:  This horse brings some star power to the Derby with owner Merv Griffin but he ran a real clunker at the Illinois Derby. O’Neill says Cobalt Blue is a big heavy horse and he hated the track at Hawthorne. So they are hoping for a turnaround in the Derby.  It’s not a great place to get that kind of reversal of form but Cobalt Blue did post a sizzling 1:11.4 at Keeneland for six furlongs.  Merv says this horse won on Valentine’s Day and St. Patrick’s Day, and could make Derby Day his next holiday.

Liquidity:  He has the most potential of any horse in the O’Neill barn, but unrealized potential. Liquidity ran a very nice second to the now injured Ravel in the Sham Stakes, but was a dull sixth at the Louisiana Derby and fourth at Santa Anita.  And with horses fading all around him, the Santa Anita was a race waiting to be won.  Liquidity also had a nice 1:11.3 work at Keeneland, but he will have to wake up to make some noise this week.

Sedgefield:  Nothing in his past performance indicates that Sedgefield will hit the board, but the connections have signed on Julien Leparoux to ride in his first Derby.  Leparoux is a difference maker, he can really ride a horse.  I’ve seen him coax some very ordinary horses to the winner’s circle and because of that, Sedgefield has a chance.  If Leparoux wins this race, he will be horse racing’s new star.

Dominican:  Speaking of great jockeys, Rafael Bejarano winds up on this gelding, who has a two race winning streak. Domincan has won three races, but all three have been on Polytrack. So do you throw him out as an artificial turf wonder? Some say, Domincan got better because he was gelded and became a much better race horse. One thing is certain, Domincan will not be able to stalk behind a pace of :52 and change, like the easy trip he got in the Bluegrass.  He looks like a middle of the pack horse, but Bejarano can wrestle a horse down the stretch as good as anybody.

Stormello:  Looking for a speed horse, who can run the first mile in suicide fractions and then quietly step aside down the stretch.  Stormello set the pace and lost by a nose in the Fountain of Youth, then set the pace and finished fourth in the Florida Derby. If he decides to be the rabbit in Derby 133, he’ll need oxygen by the eighth pole. This year’s Keyed Entry.

Hard Spun:   Hard Spun shouldn’t be this far down the list because he’s only run one bad race in his life. He won the Lane’s End easily, and has been training at Churchill with works like :57.6 on April 30. And that is not a misprint.  He’s a Danzig and should be able to get the distance and Larry Jones winning the Derby would be a great story.  Don’t count him out, but if he runs 5 furlongs that fast….then count him out.  May have left his race on the track Monday morning.

Any Given Saturday:   Good race, bad race. Good race, bad race.  After a third place in the Wood….the pattern would seem to be good race.

Had a great work at Keeenland in :58 and change. This is another Distorted Humor with a very good chance. Go Go Gomez also give this horse an edge, and doesn’t Todd Pletcher have to win this race sooner or later.

Zanjero:  The pronouncer on this horse is Zan-hairo.  He lost by a hair in the Bluegrass Stakes in the group photo that included Street Sense and Dominican and Teuflesberg. So does that put Zanjero in the mix for the best of the best? Probably not!  The Bluegrass was a wacky race. Nobody wanted the lead and they crawled the first half mile. Zanjero has never won a stakes race and I don’t think he will win one this weekend.

Storm in May: Second in the Arkansas Derby by ten and a half lengths.  Highest speed figure was 95 in the Sunshine Millions Dash at six furlongs. In this field, he’s 50-1

Xchanger:  He’s coming, he’s not coming.  He’s for sale, he’s not for sale. He loves me, he loves me not. Xchanger won the Federico Tesio at Pimlico and has the money to get in the field. If the connections decide to come over, they will van him nine hours. But if they sell the horse, to somebody, who just wants a horse in the Derby, then he’s coming.  For the investment, the new owners get a good view of the race, and a horse that finishes up the track.

Sam P:  He has just enough money to get in the field.  And as crazy as it sounds, he might hit the board.  He has a penchant for running late and running third. In the Kentucky Derby, you can pass a bunch of tired horses in the last quarter mile.

Teuflesberg:  I think it’s Toiflesberg, but hey, I’m German.  This is the horse on the bubble, number 21 on the earnings list.  The horse deserves a shot and so does trainer Jamie Sanders.  Probably not in the top tier of this field but can compete on this level.                        

Bwana Bull: Won three races I a row and then left Northern California.  Resume will read…”won the Derby,  the El Camino Real Derby ‘