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ROEDEMEIER: Horses that can't win the Derby

ROEDEMEIER: Horses that can't win the Derby

by Gary Roedemeier

Posted on April 23, 2014 at 9:44 AM

Updated Wednesday, Apr 23 at 9:44 AM

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- This is the most dangerous column that I write all spring.

But it's very similar to what most people are doing two weeks before Derby.

It is time to eliminate those horse that you think can't win on May 3rd.

Some have already eliminated themselves.

First among those is Cairo Prince, who was everybody's favorite for the first three months of this year.  I was mystified that anybody would think a Pioneer of the Nile with a Dosage Index of 7.00 could ever win the Derby.

Then the connections skipped a prep race, (never a good sign) and failed to hit the board in the Florida Derby. That was followed by an ankle injury, and I hope the owners now run Cairo Prince as a true middle distance champion.

And speaking of Florida horses, Wildcat Red is the best and bravest horse running at Gulfstream.  But they have stretched this sprinter as far as he can go. Wildcat Red's speed number declined in the Florida Derby.

Please, don't run this horse in the Derby.  He's too fast, too brave and could get hurt trying to go the Derby distance. Oh, and I don't think he can win.
Looking for more horses that can't win, look no farther than Turfway and Keeneland. We Miss Artie will win the Derby if Churchill puts in Polytrack next Tuesday. The last time on dirt, this Artie Schiller offspring was 8th by 17 lengths.

Harry's Holiday just snuck into the starting gate as number 20 but how many horses have won the Derby when they were 13th by 28 lengths in their last race. Reminds me of a Hitchcock movie…."The Trouble with Harry"

And Harry beat another starter Vinceremos in the Bluegrass Stakes. Vinceremos was 14th.  And you are not having double vision. This is another Pioneer of the Nile with a 7.00 Dosage Index.  Eddie Arcaro couldn't win on this horse.

By this point, you're probably thinking that  I'm really down on Pioneer of the Nile. Not at all. I think he's promising sire, but a middle distance sire. And speaking of successful sires, who haven't won a Derby, how about Tapit.

Tapiture appeared to hit the wall in the Arkansas Derby and Ring Weekend did the same in a much slower race at Calder. A lot of horses quit running in the long Derby stretch. Here are two candidates to stop.

If you're looking for another high profile horse that is likely to lose, look no farther than Louisiana Derby winner Vicar's in Trouble. He's second on the points list with 120 but has a Dosage of 5.00. Middle distance, sires like Into Mischief will get a horse to the Derby but not to the finish line.

You can also toss out Dance With Fate. Even the owners were not sure they wanted to run in the Derby. If the dance was on Poly, then we have a contender but the sire is Two Step Salsa.  He's a Petionville, one of the best known Polytrack producers.

And now the clincher. I present, the final horse, who cannot win the 2014 Kentucky Derby: California Chrome.

It's just too obvious. The speed figures are skewed at Santa Anita and then there's the sire.  California Chrome is a Tapit in disguise.  His sire, Lucky Pulpit, is by Pulpit, the sire of Tapit. I see this horse making his move at the top of the stretch, but there will be a lot of closers ready to pounce.
There's always the possibility that California Chrome is a freak that outruns his pedigree and 19 other horses, but he'll have to transfer that speed from California to a much different race track.

There they are: My horses that can't win the Derby including the likely favorite.

Next week:  My half dozen or so that can win on May 3rd.

Happy Derby everyone.