New numbers in Kentucky’s Third District Congressional race, and our numbers are showing an upset in the making.

Also Online

View this story

It's a surprise to both campaigns. The new WHAS11/SurveyUSA poll shows John Yarmuth leading Anne Northup by eight points, increasing his lead over the past two weeks.

Here are the numbers:

The poll shows the Democrat Yarmuth leading Congresswoman Northup 52 percent to 44 percent. The polling included about 600 likely voters who were called Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Yarmuth's campaign manager says the results are encouraging, but show a much wider lead than even Yarmuth's internal polls show.

Northup's campaign manager agrees, saying the SurveyUSA numbers are off. Both camps say they're running their campaigns like they're down 10 points heading into the last four days before the election.

This week's polling shows Yarmuth getting increasing support from male voters and Democrats. The numbers show Northup getting just 16 percent of voters who identify themselves as Democrats.  If true, that would doom her chances, because Jefferson County voters are overwhelmingly registered Democrats.

Web story produced by Jay Ditzer.