PPP Poll: Grayson and Conway fare better in the fall

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by Joe Arnold

WHAS11.com

Posted on May 6, 2010 at 12:43 AM

Updated Thursday, May 6 at 12:48 AM

Rand Paul and Daniel Mongiardo may lead their respective primaries in the latest Public Policy Polling survey, but Trey Grayson and Jack Conway are stronger candidates in the general election, according to new details released by PPP on Wednesday.

Republicans

In the results released Tuesday, Paul led Grayson 46% - 28% in the GOP primary.  Yet, the new results show that in a fall matchup versus Jack Conway, Grayson's margin of victory is seven points stronger than Paul.  In a fall matchup versus Mongiardo, Grayson's margin is four points wider.  The poll shows Paul in a virtual dead heat with Conway, while Grayson's lead is just greater than the margin of error.

Democrat

Meanwhile, while Mongiardo leads Conway 36% - 27% in the Democratic primary, Mongiardo and Conway both trail Grayson by eight points in a fall matchup.  Against Paul, Conway is three points closer than Mongiardo.

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Grayson  42%      

Conway   34% 

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Grayson     43%        

Mongiardo 35%  

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Paul           41%    

Conway     40%    

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Paul              42%

Mongiardo   38%

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Highlights:

  • “Democrats are looking a good deal more competitive in this race than they did four
    months ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “If Rand Paul wins
    the Republican nomination it could really end up as a top tier contest.” 
  • Mongiardo is viewed the least favorably.  Paul is next.
  • 18% of Kentucky voters say they are members of the Tea Party movement

Click here for the entire pdf file from Public Policy Polling.

And, here's the summary from PPP:

Tight Senate Race in Kentucky
 
Raleigh, N.C. – Despite leading in their respective primaries, Rand Paul and Dan
Mongiardo look weaker in potential November matchups for Jim Bunning’s Senate seat
than do challengers Jack Conway and Trey Grayson.
 
Grayson has almost identical leads over each of the Democrats, 42-34 over Conway and
43-35 over Mongiardo.  But Paul is ahead of Conway only 41-40 and Mongiardo 42-38. 
These slim leads for the conservative challenger come despite a near majority, 49%, of
Kentucky voters labeling themselves conservatives.  
 
Among those voters, the Republican nominee makes no difference, but Mongiardo and,
particularly, Conway draw more of the moderate and liberal vote against Paul than
against Grayson.  Paul does fare slightly better than Grayson among independents.

Mongiardo is viewed worst among the four candidates, with only 24% having a positive
view of him, to 36% with a negative opinion.  Paul is also viewed poorly, 28-35. 
Reflecting their stronger standing in general election matches, feelings on the other two
are split, 24-24 for Grayson and 20-22 for Conway.  Paul is seen favorably by
conservatives, 42-20, to 28-25 for Grayson, but Paul is seen twice as negatively among
moderates, 46% to 23% for Grayson.
 
Yesterday’s PPP release showed a 68% approval for the goals of the Tea Party movement
among Republicans, but the overall Kentucky electorate shows only a 45-34 approval
rating, with a mere 18% of Kentucky voters saying they are members of the movement. 
 
“Democrats are looking a good deal more competitive in this race than they did four
months ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “If Rand Paul wins
the Republican nomination it could really end up as a top tier contest.” 
 
PPP surveyed 946 Kentucky voters on May 1st
 and 2nd
.  The margin of error for the
survey was +/-3.2%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

 

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