Gary Roedemeier's Kentucky Derby 139 picks

Gary Roedemeier's Kentucky Derby 139 picks

Gary Roedemeier's Kentucky Derby 139 picks

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WHAS11.com

Posted on May 4, 2013 at 12:36 AM

Updated Saturday, May 4 at 3:44 PM

(WHAS11) -- As I drove home from the Oaks, small drops of doubt began to collect on the window of my car.

Click here for current odds.

Would the wipers wash away four months of handicapping and send me on an alternate route home, searching for a mudder?

Remember, the mud made no difference to Smarty Jones or Sunday Silence but it made champions of lightly regarded Super Saver, Mine That Bird and Go for Gin.

With the storms clouds gathering and the specter of a sloppy track I think my top contenders, Revolutionary and Orb, have the ability to overcome an off track and even a troubled trip.

Revolutionary knows the way home and he seems fearless in finding a way to the finish line. Calvin is along for the ride, and he has the same brave approach.  Orb is reunited with Joel Rosario who is currently the hottest jockey in the world and it seems possible that these two will be noses apart at the finish line.

With lots of local money headed to Goldencents and Verrazano its possible  that my two favorites will even provide some decent value for ticket buyers.

Now what about those saver bets, if wet weather creates havoc in the eleventh race?

The Lukas entries, Oxbow and Will Take Charge both have decent wet Tomlinson numbers. Palace Malice has a second in the slop and there may be some Cot Campbell magic in the works. And Mylute is just a neck behind the horse that I've chosen for first place.

The surface may change overnight but the Oaks day race track was favoring not speed, not stalkers, but deep closers. Who was that horse that won the Oaks? We may be saying the same thing on Saturday night about the Derby.

I'm still with Revolutionary to win it all.

But let's play in the mud with some long shot exotics.

Gary Roedemeier picked three winning trifectas on Friday during the WHAS11 coverage of the Kentucky Oaks. But, as Gary said, "past performance is no assurance of future financial gains"

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