Yarmuth leads Lally by four in final poll


by Joe Arnold


Posted on October 27, 2010 at 3:05 PM

Updated Monday, Oct 15 at 3:35 PM

While the national pundits and prognosticators rate the Kentucky's Third Congressional District election as either "safe" for incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth or "leans" his way, the WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll continues to tell a different story.

Third Congressional District
588 Likely KY-3 Voters
Lally (R) 46%
Yarmuth (D) 50%
Martin (L) 1%
Hansen (I) 1%
Undecided 1%
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.1%

Yarmuth now leads UPS Pilot and Kentucky National Guardsman Todd Lally by four points in the new WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.  It is not as large a margin as what Yarmuth enjoys in other polls, but he is confident.

"If we do our job and make sure our voters get out, then I'm going to have a solid victory," Yarmuth said when apprised of the poll.

"I think it's consistent with all the internal polling we've been doing," said Lally, "Over the months, we've been telling people this is a very very close race."

Though both Lally and Yarmuth are still making their case to undecided voters, with one week until election day, the contest is as much about getting out the vote - making sure that supporters actually show up at the polls.

Always Vote in Mid-Term Elections
Lally  (R)          52%
Yamuth (D)    46%
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.1%

Lally leads by six points among voters who say they always vote in mid-term elections. 
Mid-term voter turnout is traditionally much lower than in presidential election years.

"I think there is some political energy going on right now and it's certainly not going in the incumbents way," Lally said.

Rarely Vote in Mid-Term Elections
Lally  (R)          42%
Yamuth (D)      54%
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.1%

Meanwhile - Yarmuth is bucking conventional wisdom in what is seen as an election in which Republicans are more motivated to vote.  Among those who rarely vote in mid-term elections, the liberal Democrat leads the Tea Party conservative by 12 points.

"Actually what I think it shows is that voters who don't necessarily vote are excited about coming out and voting for me," Yarmuth said.

As Democrats across the country brace for unprecedented losses, Yarmuth suggests his reelection could carry a message to Democrats -- stick by and explain your votes.

"I think unfortunately some of our Democratic colleagues around the country have run away from their votes," Yarmuth said.

If there one thing Lally and Yarmuth agree on, it's that Yarmuth's voting record should determine the winner.  Lally says it does not reflect the voters' will, and that's why he's within striking distance.

"We know we are," Lally said, "We are talking to people everyday. We're getting those moderate Democrats to come our way, the independents are coming our way, we have a very aggressive campaign that's walking neighborhoods making phone calls and we're getting out there. and I think its going to come our way."