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Where's the Snow

by Monty Webb

Posted on December 14, 2011 at 12:35 AM

For all you snow lovers dreaming of a white Christmas there may be some hope...  More on that in just a minute, but first let's compare this December to last year.

So far this month we have recieved a whopping TRACE of snow!  Normal to date would be just under an inch (0.8").  Last December by this date (December 13) we had 4.5 inches, with a snowfall of 1.6" on the 4th and 2.4" on the 12th.  And Mother Nature graced us with a white Christmas... A little more than an inch of snow fell last Christmas Eve through Christmas Day!

Now back to our snow chances this Christmas Eve/Day...  The models are hinting at a strong system moving through Kentuckiana on Friday the 23rd.  This will be a rainmaker as the temps will be to warm.

GFS 1000-500mb Thickness (Friday afternoon)...  The "snow" line (540 thickness) is well north of us in Michigan, so Friday looks wet.

GFS 850mb Temperatures (Friday Afternoon)...  Another thing we look at for snow potential are the 850mb temps.  I like to see them around -5 degrees Celsius, and they are around +4.5 degrees.

By Saturday afternoon (Christmas Eve) the front has pushed to our east and cold air is racing into Kentuckiana.  With the cold air in place all we need is some moisture... 

GFS 1000-500mb Thickness (Christmas Eve - Afternoon)... Notice the wrap around moisture (not a lot, but I'll take it) and the "snow" line is well south of us.

GFS 850mb Temps (Christmas Eve - Afternoon)...  The 850mb temps look good at -6 Celsius so they would support snow. 

Right now it does not look like a big Christmas Eve snowmaker, just a few light flurries.  But, I guess that is better than nothing and it should put us all in the Holiday mood!  Stay tuned, we will keep watching this system as it develops...  Christmas Eve is still 11 days away and a lot can happen between now and then!