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BLOG: Warm, storms, then winter returns next week

by Ben Pine

Posted on February 18, 2014 at 7:46 AM

Updated Tuesday, Feb 18 at 6:55 PM

Before we dig in to the big changes, here's a look at why we had some black ice this morning.   The graph below shows air temperatures this morning above freezing (blue line = 38 degrees), but pavement temps below freezing (black line = 28 degrees).  These minor black ice events usually don't last long, as the sun rises, road temps will rise quickly.

Alright, moving on... let's start with the good news.  Sunshine today and tomorrow with highs in the 50s!  A small system will bring a few rain showers overnight - no big deal - back to sun tomorrow.  The map below has almost a spring feeling in the air this afternoon.

Tonight, a small system brings some light rain showers.  But, no worries, notice temps all well above freezing.  The rain chance is after midnight, and gone before sunrise Wednesday.

The spring-like weather hits a fever pitch with mid-upper 60s Thursday.  It looks like we may have to pay for the warm-up with a line of strong-severe storms late Thursday. 

The Storm Prediction Center has all of our region under a Slight Risk of Severe Storms for Day 3 (Thursday). 

Let's make a big jump ahead.  Hop in the weather time machine to next Tuesday.  The long-range weather models are signaling another shot of cold air - with light snow possible.  The freezing line is well south of our area on the GFS map below.  The last map is the EURO map for Tuesday, also showing snow chances.  This is still one week away, so as always, the forecast is highly subject to change.  

Notice the 7day forecast is trending cooler toward early next week...

The moral of the story - enjoy the warmth for now...

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