First the good news...
The forecast for the Great Balloon Race Saturday morning looks perfect! Mostly sunny, light winds and temps in the 50s.
Saturday looks great! Mostly sunny and low 80s. Most of Sunday looks dry until the evening hours then we will have to watch for scattered showers and storms developing as a warm front lifts north through the region.
Severe Weather Threat
A strong storm system will develop over the central plains this weekend. Severe weather is expected over the mid west to Texas, with the greatest risk for tornadoes over OK, AR, TX and LA. These storms are expected to move towards the Ohio Valley Sunday night-Monday morning. The storms are not expected to be severe at that time. However, gusty winds, heavy rain and small hail may be possible.
The GFS is showing a line of showers and storms arriving early Monday morning.
Severe Threat Monday and Tuesday
A strong upper level will send severe chances of strong to severe storms our way Monday and Tuesday.
SPC has a slight risk for severe storms Monday for our far western counties. However, I think this will likely be extended to cover all of Kentuckiana.
By Tuesday all of Kentuckiana is under a slight risk for severe storms. The main threats, damaging winds, hail, heavy rain and a very slight chance for an isolated tornado. A secondary threat will be local flooding. Rainfall from Sunday night-Tuesday night could be between 1.5 to 2.5 inches.
Cooler and Showers for Derby Week
As the upper level low tracks to our northeast it will continue to rotate showers into the region. Temps fall to near 70s next Wednesday, low 60s for the Pegasus Parade and Oaks.
Mostly dry for Derby with just a slight chance for a stray shower.
Upper level Lows are very difficult to forecast this far out... The WHAS11 Storm team will be fine tuning the forecast as we get closer to Oaks and Derby