Latest Timing For Thursday Night's Strong/Severe Storms...
Western Counties: 11pm-Midnight
I-65 Corridor (Metro Louisville): 1-2am Friday
Eastern Counties: 3-4am Friday
SPC Probabilistic Outlook (Thursday AM-Friday AM)
The Outlook has areas west of I-65 in a 30% probability and east of I-65 at 15%. But, notice "Hatched" area in our far western counties... The "Hatched Area" represents a 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. This is the area that has the best chance of seeing an isolated tornado.
The models have been speeding up this system over the past couple of runs, so we may have to fine tune the timing Thursday. The moderate risk is just to the west of our western counties and I would not be surprised to see it shifted a bit east if the system arrives earlier. Something to watch closely.
I also think the best chance of seeing an isolated tornado will be west of I-65. We will also need to watch out for a few isolated storms that may develop out ahead of the main squall line tomorrow.