Sunday Snow Chances
Posted on February 18, 2012 at 9:12 PM
We still have our eyes on this storm system that will cross southeastern states tonight and head off to the northeast Sunday. It looks like rain will move into southern counties overnight with temperatures above freezing. Once temperatures begin to drop, the rain will change over to snow by morning and continue for most of the day. But, not everyone will see the snow since the system will take a more southerly track. Right now, counties in purple are under a winter weather advisory from 5am until 5pm Sunday. Adair County is the only one under a winter storm warning with the possibility of more than 4” of snow.
The track of this system is still in question and that will determine who gets snowfall with this system and how much. Here is a look at two different models, the NAM and the GFS. The NAM is finally starting to agree with the other models and taking the track of the storm further to the south. It still has the highest snowfall amounts with up to 6” in parts of Green, Taylor, Marion and Adair counties. I think this model is being too aggressive with the snowfall. However, it now agrees with the other models that the metro will not see any snowfall with this system.
The GFS on the other hand almost completely takes snowfall off the map for us. It only has most areas receiving a dusting and Adair County getting up to 1” of snowfall!
So here is what I think will happen right now with this system. Areas under the winter weather advisory will end up seeing 1-2” with pockets of 3” not out of the question. Southeast in Adair county has the best chance of seeing accumulating snow with 2-4” possible.
Of course this is still subject to change, so stayed tuned!