Strong to Severe Storms Likely Friday
Posted on March 1, 2012 at 9:27 AM
Another round of strong to severe weather is on the way for Kentuckiana tomorrow. The latest data is concerning, and we could have a significant severe weather outbreak tomorrow. A warm front will lift across the area in the morning bringing showers and isolated storms. The best chance for severe weather will arrive in the afternoon with a strong cold front.
Looking at the NAM model run, dewpoints are still pretty low in the morning hours in the 30s and 40s.
By afternoon/evening, dewpoints continue to rise into the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints this high in winter are very unusual. We also had dewpoints this high yesterday with the severe weather!
We also look at CAPE (potential energy in the atmosphere to get the storms going). In the morning, the CAPE is just starting to climb over 1000 J/kg.
By afternoon/evening, we are looking at CAPE values in some places over 2000 J/kg according to this latest NAM model run. Very high numbers!
With all these parameters coming into play, the Storm Prediction Center already has the area under a moderate risk for severe weather. Right now, the best chance for severe storms will arrive in the afternoon and evening between 2 pm and 9 pm. The main threats will be damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.