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Slight Risk of severe storms Monday

Slight Risk of severe storms Monday

by Ben Pine

WHAS11.com

Posted on April 7, 2014 at 10:06 AM

Updated Monday, Apr 7 at 10:11 AM

The first map below shows areas east of I-65 in Kentucky under a Slight Risk of Severe Storms (yellow shaded area).  The next map shows the 5% probability of a tornado in this area as well.  The threat of a small spin-up tornado is low today.  The bigger threat will be damaging winds gusts with any strong storm that develops.  The maps below will show the ingredients we have for severe storms, and what we're lacking.

The 3rd map is the jet stream, which shows a strong jet of winds 80-100 mph a few miles up.  If storms tap into this jet, damaging winds could occur.  Notice the strongest part of the jet (pink/purple) area is in the eastern half of Kentucky. 

The next map shows the helicity (amount of wind shear/rotation).  Again, the eastern half of Kentucky this afternoon has the most wind shear.  This is a map we look at for rotation potential.  There is a lot of shear and wind energy.

The next map with very little on it, is the CAPE.  This map shows us how much instability is in the atmosphere, or how much fuel for the storms.  There is very little instability at this point.  If we stay cloudy, there will remain very little instability - which will keep storms much weaker.  This is a major limiting factor. 

Overall, this is an overly sheared, low instability system - which can bring very gusty storms - often below severe limits.  Just be aware of quickly changing weather conditions through the afternoon and seek shelter if a warming is issued for your area. 

Any storm will be capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail today.

The last three maps show the heaviest rain and storms early afternoon with lighter rain late afternoon and evening.  The last map shows some areas could see 1/2 - 1" of rainfall.  This rain could keep areas flooded.  Never drive over flooded roadways. 

Tweet at me @WHAS11Ben   'Like' my facebook page for more weather updates.

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