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Severe weather UPDATE!

by Kristin Walls

WHAS11.com

Posted on November 16, 2013 at 7:59 PM

Updated Saturday, Nov 16 at 8:51 PM

We are looking at two waves of storms.  Early morning (locally strong) and late afternoon/evening (severe).  A squall line of severe storms will push though the region between 4-11pm.  The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a moderate risk with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes 

Here is a look at what we could expect with the first round of storms (2 AM until 10 AM Sunday):
- Showers and Storms
- Locally Strong
- Heavy Downpours
- Gust 40-50mph
- Small Hail

 

The second round is what concerns us...
 
It looks like we get a small break late morning through early afternoon.  If we see any sun during this time, temperatures will climb (instability) and our risk for tornadoes will increase, especially in southern Indiana.  If we stay cloudy all day, the threat for severe weather decreases, but we will still see the afternoon/evening squall line.
 
Timing of PM Squall Line:
- 4-8pm NW Counties
- 6-9pm Metro
- 8-11pm SE Counties
- If isolated tornadoes do develop timing would be about an hour earlier than squall line


 
Sunday Late Afternoon-Evening
- Squall Line Strong to Severe Storms
- Slight chance of isolated tornadoes ahead of squall line (Dependent upon amount of sunshine)
- Damaging Winds Gusts 60-75 mph
- Isolated quick spin-up tornadoes possible along the squall line

We also have a WIND ADVISORY in effect from 11AM until midnight Sunday:
- Winds will increase by late Sunday morning outside of any storms
- 11am-Midnight
- S 15-25 Gust 40mph

 

We will see some severe storms tomorrow producing damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado.  Limiting factor continues to be the instability Sunday afternoon/evening.  If we see the sunshine and temps warming into the mid 70s our risk increases. 

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