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Severe weather threat for Thursday

by Monty Webb

WHAS11.com

Posted on February 18, 2014 at 10:40 PM

Updated Wednesday, Feb 19 at 10:13 PM

Severe Weather Threat - Thursday

All of Kentuckiana is under a slight risk for severe storms Thursday evening-night.

A very strong cold front will be moving into the region Thursday evening and out ahead of the front a line of strong to severe storms will develop.

SPC has us in a 30% chance for Severe Storms Thursday!  I would not be surprise to see the Slight Risk upgraded to Moderate.

Instability

The GFS shows enough instability to support strong to severe storms.

The NAM instability is even stronger, easily supporting severe storms.

Wind Energy

Both the GFS and NAM are showing incredible wind energy (80+ MPH) about a mile above the surface.

Threats

The set-up looks like a fast moving squall line of strong to severe storms.  I suspect we will see a lot of warnings on this squall line as it moves through the area Thursday evening-night. 

Right now I see the main threat being damaging straight line winds.  There is also a slight chance we could also see a quick spin-up tornado.

Futurecast

Early Thursday morning a warm front will lift north through the area with a few scattered showers.  Behind the front the winds will become very gusty out of the south at 30-35mph and temps will climb into the upper 60s.  The warmer we get, the higher the instability and the greater the chance for severe storms by evening.

The squall line will begin to push into our western counties by Thursday evening.  We will need to watch this very carefully.  If any renegade storms develop ahead of the line, they will be the ones most likely to become a supercell and possibly produce a tornado.

Right now it looks like the squall line will be moving through the Metro between 8-10pm

The line of strong to severe storms should be pushing east of the area by 11pm.

Temps will most likely drop 20 or more degrees behind the cold front.  Again, this is a very STRONG front.

Final Thoughts

I believe we have a good chance on seeing strong to severe storms move through the area Thursday evening/night.  The main threats from this fast moving squall line will be damaging winds, heavy rain, and lightning.  But, we do need to watch out for an isolated tornado.

Stay Tuned...

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