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Breaking down tonight's severe weather chance

by Monty Webb

Posted on February 19, 2014 at 10:40 PM

Updated Thursday, Feb 20 at 7:33 AM

Severe Weather Threat - Thursday

A strong storm system developing out west will bring us two rounds of storms and gusty winds on Thursday.  The warm front will lift north through the region between 4 to 8am, bringing us scattered showers and storms (non-severe).  Behind the front the winds will become very gusty SW 20-30 gusts 40mph and temperatures will climb to near 70 degrees!

This will set the stage for a powerful cold front to crash through the area Thursday afternoon-night.  Ahead of the cold front a line of strong to severe storms will develop.  They have the potential of producing damaging winds, heavy rain (local flooding) and even the chance for isolated tornadoes.

Wind Advisory:  Thursday 10 AM to Friday 1 AM

Severe Threat

All of Kentuckiana is under a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow afternoon-night.

The greatest risk for widespread wind damage tomorrow is along and south of the Ohio River (including Metro Louisville).  I would not be surprised if SPC upgrades the slight risk to moderate.


- Damaging Winds 65-80mph - With with recent ice storm we have many weakened/damage trees in the area, add to that the snow melt and soggy soil, I think we could see lots of down trees and power outages.
- Heavy Rain with Local Flooding
- Sight Chance for Isolated Tornadoes


The warm front moves through the area between 4 to 8am.  Expect scattered showers and storms (non-severe) in the Metro around 5am.

The line of strong to severe storms will move into our western counties around 4pm.  We will have to watch for renegade storms firing up ahead of the main line.  If this happens these storms could become supercell thunderstorms capable of producing a tornado.

The line will move through the Metro between 6 to 9pm.

The storms will be leaving our viewing area after midnight.

Final Thoughts...

Tomorrow will be a very active day with strong to severe storms.  I think we could see widespread wind damage around the region due to a lot of ice damaged trees.  Be prepared for power outages too.  We also have a slight risk for isolated tornadoes.  The WHAS11 First Alert StormTeam will be tracking the storms all day.