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Oaks and Derby rain chances?

by Ben Pine

WHAS11.com

Posted on May 1, 2013 at 7:11 AM

Updated Wednesday, May 1 at 8:00 AM

So, the weather models are agreeing that our Oaks Friday is looking mainly dry with highs in the mid-upper 70s.  Derby Saturday has the biggest question marks as far as rainfall.  The European and American GFS weather models have been differing on rain chances all week, but are coming a bit closer together now. 

The first map below is the EURO model showing the rain staying mainly west through the day Saturday.  This would be the optimistic solution.  The drier we end up, the warmer it will be.  If the rain holds off out to the west, we could have highs in the 70s. 

The next two maps are the GFS weather model at 2pm and 8pm on Saturday.  Early in the day much of the rain is still mainly west, but by 8pm scattered showers are moving over Kentuckiana. 

So, right now we're going to call it a 40% chance of showers on Saturday, certainly not a wash-out.  With the Kentucky Derby three days away, we will still likely see changes to the timing and rainfall chances for Saturday.  Stay tuned! 

Our Kentucky Oaks and Derby weather has definitely been a whole lot worse in the past, here's a look back.  Historic Oaks Weather.   Historic Derby Weather.

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