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Oaks and Derby Forecast

by Monty Webb

Posted on May 2, 2013 at 9:48 PM

Should You Bet On A Mudder...

This has been a very difficult forecast all week long with a block weather pattern along the east coast and a trough to our west.  Add to the mix a developing Cut-Off Low (which the models are notoriously bad at handling).  The weather models have been all over the place this entire week from wet to dry and back to wet.  They appear to be agreeing a little better now and showing a good chance for rain on Derby.  However, there remains some differences in the exact timing and rainfall amounts.  Lets take a look...

The Models

The GFS and NAM both are showing a slight chance for a few scattered showers for Oaks mainly in the afternoon/evening.  Notice, they both are keeping the heavy rain well to our west



The models are showing the Low a little closer to us for Derby and that means a cooler and wetter day for us.

GFS shows the rain pushing in Derby morning with the heavy rain just to our west.

NAM is also showing rain pushing in Derby morning

GFS has moderate rain over us by Derby evening

NAM has the heavier rain setting just to our east by Derby evening.

Bottom Line

Prepare for a cool and wet Derby and hope for the best...