Keep an eye to the sky this afternoon and evening with about a 30% chance of hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms. Any strong storm will contain heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and possibly hail. Take a look at the Futurecast maps below. Most of the storm chances will hold off until after 3pm. The map below shows some storms firing up, especially to the north. We'll have a good chance of dodging the storm chances at Churchill through most of the afternoon. A bit drier over Kentucky, with higher storm chances in Indiana (closer to the disturbance/front).
The next map below show the activity calming down after 9pm. While, perhaps not all dry this evening, the storms will diminish and lose their intensity after sunset.
The next map is for Derby afternoon. Most of our Derby Saturday morning will be dry with temperatures in the 70s. Heading to the upper 80s for Derby afternoon, with another 30% chance of pop-up showers and storms. Again, still a good chance of dodging rain. Over the next couple of days, just remember, if you hear thunder, just seek shelter. If you get caught in a storm, don't worry it won't last long.
The final map here shows the Storm Prection Center has placed our area in a Slight Risk for severe storms. While a few storms could be strong or severe, we are not expecting an outbreak of severe weather, and the main threat will be gusty winds and some hail. Our chances of severe weather really are on the lower end, so don't be overly concerned.