StormTeam Blog

Find posts by keyword
Find posts by date


Kentucky Derby rain update!

by Ben Pine

Posted on May 2, 2013 at 6:37 AM

Updated Saturday, Nov 2 at 8:06 PM

Looking around different websites and television stations, you can see forecasts for Saturday are all over the place!  And, there's a reason for that.  The weather models have been all over the place!  Take a look at all of the maps below and keep track of the optimistic and pessimistic outlooks. 

First off, whatever happens with the rain chances Saturday, there is some really, really good news!  No severe weather is expected, and on top of that, plain old thunderstorms are NOT expected.  The rain on the way, should be just that, rain. 

OK, so follow along with the Futurecast and other weather model maps below.  We start with Friday, and Futurecast is showing dry conditions.  The other weather models are also calling for mainly dry weather with highs in the mid 70s.  So, don't worry about Oaks! 

The following Futurecast maps take you through Derby Day.  Starting off in the morning at 8am, the rain is holding off out to the west (per this RPM model).  As you'll see later, this is not the case on other models.

Next up is midday Saturday, Futurecast at 1pm is also dry around Churchill Downs with rain out west. 

The last Futurecast map shows scattered showers ready to roll in for the Kentucky Derby by 6pm.  But, the heavier and steadier rain is still west.

Now the bad news.  It's a much different story with the GFS model.  The 5th map below shows the GFS dropping a bunch of rain over our area by 8am Saturday morning.

The next map is the NAM weather model, and it's all wet over us Saturday afternoon. 

The last map shows the somewhat kinder EURO weather model.  It has the steadier, heavier rain to the west/southwest most of the day, but still some light rain at times over our area.

So, as you can see, there are still some big differences in rain amounts and the timing.  We'll continue to fine tune the Derby Day rain chances, but for now, it's time to coordinate a fashionable rain poncho and umbrella just in case!    -Ben Pine