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Flurries and a Cold Breeders' Cup

by Monty Webb

Posted on November 3, 2010 at 9:46 PM

Updated Wednesday, Nov 3 at 9:46 PM

It's that time of year when all the meteorologists get excited about the chance for the first snowflake of the season.  And yes, it does make me smile a little everytime I think about that first flake!

So how is it shaping up for us...?  Lets take a look...  Tomorrow morning cold front will push Kentuckiana opening the door to some very cold Canadian air and by tomorrow afternoon the 850mb temps will fall to -2.5 C (cold, but not cold enough for snow).  So, the moisture we see on the 1000-500mb chart will fall as scattered light showers or sprinkles.  Notice the tight packing of the isobars (lines of equal pressure) over the region.  This strong pressure gradient will produce gusty northerly winds by Thursday afternoon.

GFS 850 mb Thursday Evening

GFS 1000-500 mb Thursday Evening

As the cold air races into Kentuckiana the 850mb temps fall to around -5C by early Friday morning (this is cold enough for snow), but the moisture will be limited as the strong northerly winds try to tap into some moisture from Lake Michigan (lake effect in KY?). Bottom line...  Cold and breezy late Thursday-Saturday with a slight chance for a few rain/snow showers or flurries early Friday morning.

GFS 850 mb, Friday Morning

GFS 1000-500 mb, Friday Morning

Here's your Breeders' Cup Forecast...