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Did someone say Snow next week...?

by Monty Webb

Posted on October 18, 2011 at 8:22 PM

Today's blog is dedicated to all the snow lovers in Kentuckiana...!

Long range models (GFS) are bringing in another strong cold front next Tuesday night/Wednesday, with even colder air advecting into the region Wednesday night and Thursday.  The GFS then pushes a weak disturbance with moisture through Kentuckian Thursday night/Friday morning. 

With 850mb temps between -4 to -5 Celsius and the 540 thickness line (snow line) well to our south, we could see a little snow or flurries Thursday night-Friday morning.  Before we all get to excited let me remind you that this is still more than a week away!

Our average first measurable (>.10") snow is November 25th, while the first trace is on November 22nd.  The earliest trace of snow occurred October 3, 1980 and earliest measurable snow fell on October 19, 1989 - 1.4"

GFS 850 mb... Thursday 8pm 10/27,  850mb temps around -4 Celsius (we like to see -3 to -5 for snow)

GFS 1,000-500mb Thickness... Thursday 8pm 10/27...  540 (snow) line well to our south and moisture moving in from the northwest.

GFS 850mb...  Friday 8am 10/28... 850 temps are even colder at -5 celsius.

GFS 1,000-500mb Thickness...  Friday 8am 10/28...  540 (snow) line all the way down to the Gulf Coast.  Moisture over Kentuckiana equals a little snow.