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Upset special: Pollster in KY poll predicted Brown win

by Joe Arnold

WHAS11.com

Posted on January 20, 2010 at 12:44 PM

The same polling firm that registered a shocking 19 point lead for Rand Paul over Trey Grayson in a December poll of Kentucky's GOP Senate primary also forecast the shocking upset by Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

Kentucky's poll was heavily scrutinized when it was released, with questions of whether Public Policy Polling had the right proportions of voters in population centers and if likely voters were truly represented. 

In this morning's Politico's winners and losers, David Catanese points out PPP "hit the bullseye" in Massachusetts:

In the final weekend flurry of surveys, the North Carolina-based Democratic pollster hit the bullseye, giving Brown a five-point advantage, 51 to 46 percent. With 100 percent of precincts reporting Tuesday night, Brown defeated Coakley 52 percent to 47 percent — the same 5 percentage point spread PPP forecast in its final poll Jan. 16 to Jan. 17. Pollsters take considerable flak when they get it wrong, but in this case, PPP wins points for hitting it on the nose. PPP was also out in front of their colleagues, becoming the first major pollster to track Brown with a slight lead in its Jan. 7 to Jan. 9 survey.

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