Political Blog

Find posts by keyword
Find posts by date


Paul up by nine in last WHAS11/CJ poll of Senate race

by Joe Arnold


Posted on October 28, 2010 at 4:00 PM

Updated Monday, Oct 15 at 2:35 PM

Rand Paul appears to be widening his lead over Jack Conway.

Likely voters
U.S. Senate
Paul (R) 52%
Conway (D) 43%
Undecided 4%
margin of error +/-4%

The final WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll of the race shows Republican Rand Paul with a nine point lead over the Democrat, Conway.

Click here for the poll results from pollster Survey USA

It is the first Bluegrass poll conducted since the a WHAS11 debate nearly two weeks ago that sparked controversy and bipartisan consternation for Conway.

In an identical poll one month ago, Conway had closed to within two points of Paul. Democrats sensed Conway was replicating his come from behind victory in the primary. 

But that was before a number of events, including the Aqua Buddha ad that Democratic insiders believe may very well have sunk Conway's campaign.

"This race is tight.  This race is close," Conway insisted while addressing a couple dozen supporters in Shelbyville Thursday morning.

And one other major development this afternoon.  Sources tell WHAS11 that former President Bill Clinton will campaign in Louisville on Monday at the University of Louisville.

In three separate polls released this week -- by Public Policy Polling, CNN/Time, and Fox News/Rasmussen, Conway is down at least seven points in each poll.

And now, it is a nine point lead for Paul in the WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

"We're pretty excited by it.  We feel the momentum," Paul said in an interview at WBKO-TV in Bowling Green.

"I've overcome your erroneous polls in the past," Conway charged, "and I'm going to do it again on Tuesday."

Conway is echoing the criticism by a number of Democrats who say the Bluegrass poll oversamples Republicans.

"It doesn't look like what historically comes to the polls on election day," Conway said, " I'm a closer. and I think here in the last week, people are focused on the clear choice that seniors have in this race, the clear choice that veterans have in this race and the clear choice that the women in Kentucky have in this race.

In last month's poll, Conway enjoyed a 16 point lead among women. But today's WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll shows that many female voters have shifted to Rand Paul.

U.S. Senate
Women voters
Paul (R)   46%
Conway (D) 48%
Undecided   6%
margin of error +/-4%


U.S. Senate
Republican voters
Paul (R) 81%
Conway (D) 14%
Undecided 5%
margin of error +/-4%

And while Paul's dominance among fellow Republican voters is to be expected - he leads among Republicans by 67 points -

U.S. Senate
Democratic voters
Paul (R)   30%
Conway (D) 66%
Undecided   4%
margin of error +/-4%

- more Democrats have shifted to Paul in the last month.  30% of Democrats in our poll now back the Republican - a gain of five points since last month.

"I think Democrats in Kentucky are pretty conservative," Paul explained, "and I think - you know my in-laws were Democrats you know - I know a lot of people are Democrats but they are sort of, they're Pro-Life, they're traditional family kind of Democrats, they are socially conservative, and also fiscally conservative."

"There are some very conservative Democrats and we need to make sure that they understand that I'm against 'Cap and Trade,'" Conway said, "that I'm 'A' rated by the NRA, we're spending a lot of time in Western Kentucky."

And what about the stomping incident by a Rand Paul supporter at Monday night's KET debate?  Could the viral video be the October surprise the Conway campaign needs to come from behind?

"It's a gamechanger if the Paul campaign continues to mishandle it and to fail to understand the signal that they are sending," Conway said.

The Paul campaign has condemned the incident and disassociated itself from the volunteer who is seen on video pressing his foot into the neck and shoulder of a MoveOn.org activist.  A second video shows that the activist had shoved a sign through the passenger window of Paul's SUV and into the candidate's face.

The Kentucky Democratic party is making hay of the scuffle involving Rand Paul supporters and the liberal activist. A new ad says Paul is "stomping on Kentucky."