I leave town for two days and all heck breaks loose. Sorry I couldn't get to the blog for several big stories.
I am hearing about quite a few internal polls in the Senate race, in particular polling the Republican primary.
But in the only internal poll officially released, the Mongiardo Senate campaign shows an 18 point lead over Jack Conway. The internal poll does not reveal the answers to the questions leading up to the "horse race" question. Mongiardo's website lists the questions leading up to the "for whom would you vote" question.
Including "leaning toward" votes:
Mongiardo 43% (3% lean)
Conway 25% (3% lean)
Garin-Hart-Yang, a pollster for Democratic candidates (such as the late Indiana Governor Frank O'Bannon's reelection in 2000), reports a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.
While Lt. Governor Mongiardo has a strong advantage with three months to go before the May primary, it is important to remember that primary elections are inherently fluid.
In the current survey, 29% still are undecided, and Attorney General Conway’s financial advantage makes him a strong contender.
However, our survey findings make clear that on a host of key issues and dynamics, Daniel Mongiardo is much closer to the mainstream of Kentucky Democrats than his opponent. While the Lt. Governor will not match Jack Conway’s fundraising, he doesn’t have to.
Conway spokeswoman would not say if the Conway campaign has any poll numbers to refute Mongiardo's but did say, in a statement:
“Our campaign is clearly in the best position to win the Democratic nomination in May with nearly $1 million more on hand and a stronger campaign organization – not to mention a message of creating jobs, cutting the deficit, and bringing accountability to Washington, which is resonating with Kentuckians from Greenup County to Graves County.”
The Mongiardo news release repeats a central theme of the Mongiardo campaign: Mongiardo is independent with grassroots support while Conway is establishment bankrolled in part by investments that are bad for Kentucky.
Mongiardo News Release:
Mongiardo Holds 18 Point Lead Over Conway
In KY Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate
Survey Shows Mongiardo with Strong Statewide Support
FRANKFORT --- In an internal campaign poll conducted by Garin, Hart, Yang (GHY) Research Group for Dr. Daniel Mongiardo’s Democratic U.S. Senate campaign and released today, Mongiardo holds a commanding 18 point lead over Attorney General Jack Conway with three months to go until Election Day.
Mongiardo campaign spokesman Kim Geveden said, “No matter how Jack Conway or the Washington political insiders who support him may try and spin it, the facts are the facts. With three months to go in the Kentucky Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate, Daniel Mongiardo has a solid 18 point lead over Jack Conway. Daniel is strongly positioned in every region of the state except Louisville and even there, he is competitive, as the Greater Louisville Central Labor Council vote on Saturday demonstrated. Not surprising, Daniel Mongiardo is much more closely aligned with Kentucky Democrats’ core values and principles than Jack Conway, who is backed by many in the Washington political establishment. Kentucky voters don’t want an insider establishment candidate like Jack Conway. They want an independent Kentucky Democrat like Daniel Mongiardo.”
The survey, conducted February 2-4, sampled 655 registered Democratic primary voters who have voted in at least two of the last three Democratic Primaries. The poll’s margin of error (MoE) is 3.9%. 87% of Democratic registered voters surveyed said they were “certain to vote” and another 13% said they would “probably vote.” The survey sampled an additional 50 voters in western Kentucky’s Evansville and Paducah media markets.
“While 29% of Democratic primary voters are still undecided, our work is not finished,” Geveden said. “Jack can finance his campaign with millions he’s invested in a Texas natural gas company, but Daniel is used to being outspent. Hard work is nothing new to Daniel. That’s why Daniel is putting together the most highly organized statewide grassroots field organization since Wendell Ford was in the Senate. We will have the financial resources to compete on the airwaves and have the forces on the ground to win in May,” said Geveden.