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Internal poll memos from Democratic Senate campaigns

by Joe Arnold

WHAS11.com

Posted on May 7, 2010 at 8:35 AM

 After my post the other day on differing internal polls, several viewers have asked me to post the memo's from the pollsters.

Here is what I have.  For the full Conway memo, click on the link.

TO:            Friends of Daniel Mongiardo
FROM:      Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE:       May 5, 2010
RE:            Mongiardo Maintains Double-Digit Lead
The results of our recent survey (conducted Monday and Tuesday) among Democratic primary voters show Daniel Mongiardo maintaining a solid lead DESPITE being significantly out-spent by Jack Conway. Despite our opponent engaging in heavy (and at times harshly negative) television advertising, Lt. Governor Mongiardo has actually INCREASED his support:
 
 
February
2010
%
May 3-4
2010
%
Daniel Mongiardo voters
43
46
Jack Conway voters
25
34
Darlene Fitzgerald Price voters
2
2
Maurice Sweeney voters
1
2
Other/undecided voters
29
16
 
[The twelve-point advantage our poll shows for Lt. Governor Mongiardo is close to the nine-point advantage in the most recent independent survey of Democratic primary voters conducted by Public Policy Polling.]
 
Equally as important, Mongiardo holds a slightly larger 49% to 33% lead among survey respondents who have voted in the past three Democratic primary elections.
 
The survey data also bodes well for Lt. Governor Mongiardo’s potential to GROW his support in the remaining two weeks of the campaign despite the harshly-negative tone the Conway television advertising has taken. In fact, Mongiardo’s current feeling thermometer score of 53% positive and 13% negative is BETTER than his February ratings of 43% positive and 11% negative. Put another way, Mongiardo has a net POSITIVE rating among undecided voters, while Conway has a net NEGATIVE rating among this same group.
 
This memorandum is based on a representative statewide survey of 504 likely Democratic primary voters. The survey, which was conducted between May 3 and 4, 2010, has a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points.

Click here for the full pdf of the Jack Conway internal poll.

To:  Interested Parties
Fr:  Pete Brodnitz
Date:  May 5, 2010
Re:  Conway leads in most recent Kentucky primary polling
 
The results of our recent early May survey of likely 2010 Democratic primary election voters in Kentucky
show that the momentum in the race has swung in favor of Attorney General Jack Conway, who has
taken the lead over Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo.
 
Conway Now Leads Lt. Gov. Mongiardo By 4% 
 
With less than two weeks until the primary, Jack Conway has taken a 4% lead over Lieutenant Governor
Dan Mongiardo,- a 19% swing in the race in favor of Jack Conway:   
 
When we ask undecideds if they lean toward a candidate and count them accordingly, this ballot
“with leaners” Conway leads by 6%: Conway 37%, Mongiardo 31%, Others 5%, Undecided 28%.
 
Conway Leads Lt. Gov. Mongiardo By 20% Among Voters Who Know Both Candidates 
 
Among voters who are familiar with both candidates, Jack Conway leads Lieutenant Governor Dan
Mongiardo by 20% (58% of voters can identify Conway while 72% can identify Mongiardo, showing that
Conway’s support has significant room to grow):
 
  Know Both Candidates
Difference  +20
Jack Conway  50
Dan Mongiardo   30
Total others  2
Don’t Know  17 
 
 And when we ask voters if they have an excellent, good, fair or poor view of the job Dan Mongiardo is
doing as Lieutenant Governor and the job Jack Conway is doing as Attorney General, we again see voters
taking an increasingly negative view of the Lieutenant Governor: 
 

 
The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 400 interviews statewide with likely Democratic primary election
voters May 2-4, 2010. The margin of error for overall results is ±4.9%. BSG’s clients include President
Obama, Senator Merkley (D-OR), Senator Webb (VA), Senator Menendez (NJ) and the Democratic
Senatorial Campaign Committee. Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named “Pollster of the
Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work for Governor Kaine,
Senator Webb and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. 
 
 

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