The poll commissioned by Bill Johnson that convinced him to drop out of the Republican primary for U.S. Senate included a few other questions that shed light on the race between frontrunners Rand Paul and Trey Grayson, if one believes that the Magellan polling firm has any veracity.
The name ID rating of both men is similarly high, while Paul registers a higher favorability rating than Grayson. Instead of polling people who simply claimed that they planned on voting in the primary, Johnson commissioned his poll of Republicans who had voted in at least one out of four of the last four primaries.
In the Magellan poll, both Paul and Grayson register about a 15% unfavorability rating among these Republican voters, which seems to suggest that Grayson has done no better job of convincing the voters that he is the bonafide conservative in the race than he has in convincing them that Rand Paul has a bunch of strange ideas. More than 80% of the respondents in the poll identified themselves as "conservative."
Perhaps the most surprising numbers in the poll are the name identification of the frontrunners.
The Secretary of State, Grayson, has run and won statewide office twice, and registers a 90% Name ID, with 50% knowing Grayson's name very well. Meanwhile, Rand Paul's Kentucky notoriety when he entered the race was owed to his father's presidentical run, a taxpayers activist group and his opthamology practice, while never having appeared on a statewide ballot.
Yet, Paul's name ID is just as high, if not higher than Graysons. and the "hard name ID" is about ten points higher. However Paul has done it, he appears to have gotten his name out there.
With the poll showing 25% of the likeliest voters as undecided, the political TV commercials in this race become that much more important.
Trey Grayson
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Trey Grayson?
Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 14%
No Opinion 40%
Name ID 90%
Hard Name ID 50%
Never Heard Of 10%
Rand Paul
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rand Paul?
Favorable 46%
Unfavorable 15%
No Opinion 33%
Name ID 94%
Hard Name ID 61%
Never Heard Of 6%
Methodology
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a
1,477N autodial survey of likely Republican primary voters in the state of Kentucky.
The interviews were conducted March 9th, 2010. This survey has a margin of error
of +/‐ 2.5% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based
upon voter turnout demographics from the 2004, 2006, and 2008 Republican
primary elections.
