UPDATE: Here's a link to the full mayoral poll, including crosstabs and a question about John Yarmuth's reelection bid.
In an exclusive WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass poll of the Louisville mayor's race, Councilman Hal Heiner has erased businessman Chris Thieneman's four point lead. Heiner now leads by 17 points in the poll conducted by SurveyUSA from April 9 - April 12.
Only one Democratic candidate has gained ground beyond the 3.9% margin of error. Greg Fisher has opened a 15 point lead over Councilman David Tandy, and an 18 point lead over Councilman Jim King.
Five weeks from the May 18 primary, Fischer says Louisvillians are increasingly paying attention to the race.
"We're very gratified. we have got a lot of work yet to do," But so far so good for the first candidate to enter the mayor's race.
Louisville Mayor's Race
Democratic Primary
Fischer 31%
Tandy 16%
King 13%
Undecided 23%
Margin of error +/- 3.9%
Greg Fischer has emerged from the pack of Democratic candidates, up 11 points from last month's poll.
""But we're talking to the community about jobs, open and honest government," Fischer said, "The poll does confirm what I am hearing on the streets and neighborhoods as we do our canvassing around town."
Since the March poll, Councilman Hal Heiner has spent about $140,000 to saturate the airwaves and introduce himself to GOP primary voters. He was trailing in the poll then. He now leads by double digits.
Louisville Mayor's Race
Republican Primary
Heiner 42%
Thieneman 25%
Robertson 9%
Undecided 24%
Margin of error +/- 4.6%
"It really feels good," Heiner said, "We've been for the past six months talking with families and there's a feeling that Louisville has a lot more potential to be even a greater city,"
"I've been sharing a message of its time to grow jobs, its time to open up government, its time to improve the neighborhhods. and when we see a poll like this, I feel like our message, Louisvillians agree with it, that we're heading in the right direction and have the right vision," Heiner continued.
"It's not because of the message," countered GOP rival, developer Chris Thieneman, "I think it has everything to do with that he's the only Republican candidate that anybody has seen on TV. Its the name thats out there," Thieneman said, "It's not even halftime, we've got five weeks til it really counts. til the end."
Small businessman Jonathan Robertson trails at nine percent, with a still significant 24% undecided. Coupled with a crowded Democratic primary field, Heiner says TV commercials are key to reaching the electorate.
"It's important. There are 12 people running in this race, so its a very confusing race. So its important to have a clear message of where Louisville can go and then communicate that with the voters. They deserve that."
But Thieneman says Heiner's job creation claims in the ads are misleading, and he plans to challenge them in his own TV ads.
"We're not going to be changing our strategy from day one. That will be coming out closer to election week or weeks before that," Thienman said.
And in a crowded election season, Thieneman wants a one on one debate with Heiner.
"I still believe we can change the voters opinion on those that are supporting Hal, once we get all the message out. So I want that debate. I want that debate Hal Heiner."
Thieneman plans a series of mailers -- and he insists that he has enough campaign cash to keep this race competitive.
Meanwhile, in the Democratic race, Council members David Tandy and Jim King are the only other candidates besides Greg Fischer in double digits, but both are flat from one month ago.
While King and Fischer have already spent six figures each in TV commercials, Tandy has not yet hit the air.
"If I had the same resources that all of the other guys had in the race, my numbers -- I would be leading this race. I'm confident of that," Tandy said.
The first words out of Jim King's mouth in his first TV ad were "I've made mistakes." And he acknowledges today that he's going to have to do more than other candidates to overcome the baggage of the campaign finance controversy involving his daughter, Katie King's judicial campaign.
"I think that's right and I think that's part of it," King said, "I hope that the taxpayers and voters view me as redemptive, redeemable, but I've worked very hard over the past five or six years on the Metro Council I think I've made a huge difference in our city."
Louisville Mayor's Race
Democratic Primary
Allen 7%
White 4%
Farnsley 2%
Marshall 2%
Moxley 2%
Margin of error +/- 3.9%
Tyler Allen's 7% support is about where he was last month - trailed by Shannon White, Burrel Charles Farnsley, Connie Marshall and Lisa Moxley.
Yet, five weeks out, this race is topped by Fischer, Tandy and King -- with 23% of Democratic Party voters still undecided. And considering that this primary could be won with only 25 to 30 percent of that vote, a lot is up for grabs in the next five weeks.









