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Crystal Ball update from Larry Sabato

Crystal Ball update from Larry Sabato

by Joe Arnold

WHAS11.com

Posted on September 24, 2010 at 7:11 AM

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball report projects GOP gains of 7-8 seats in the Senate, 47 seats in the House and in eight elections for governor. 

Kentucky U.S. Senate: Leans Republican

Indiana U.S. Senate: Likely Republican

Kentucky Third Congressional District (Yarmuth/Lally): Likely Democrat

Indiana Ninth Congressional District (Hill/Young): Toss-up

While Sabato also teases "several significant changes in the works" in next week's U.S. House projections, he is also offering a contrarian view this week:

This week the Crystal Ball publishes a prediction that suggests the House majority may stay with the Democrats, written by Professor Alfred G. Cuzan of the University of West Florida. While Professor Cuzan makes a compelling case, the Crystal Ball’s unique dual method—examining all 435 House races individually and incorporating the result of statistical analysis based on past elections and developed over many years by Professor Alan Abramowitz, one of our Senior Columnists at the Crystal Ball—has pointed to a House gain of +47 seats for the GOP, which would deliver the majority into Republican hands. We urge our readers to consider Professor Cuzan’s analysis and arguments, and decide for themselves which outcome they believe is more likely. – Larry J. Sabato, Editor

 

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