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Calm after storm in Kentucky Senate race

Calm after storm in Kentucky Senate race

Rand Paul, Jack Conway

by Joe Arnold

WHAS11.com

Posted on November 1, 2010 at 10:58 PM

Updated Monday, Oct 15 at 2:35 PM

The wait for Bill Clinton at the University of Louisville on election eve gave partisans, pundits and candidates time to speculate on what will unfold on election day.

In the face of crippling poll numbers and national prognosticators writing him off, Democrat Jack Conway calmly asserted his confidence and key supporters quietly predicted a narrow victory. 

Just hours earlier, Republican Rand Paul also seemed serenely confident while talking to reporters at a Bowman Field stop in Louisville, saying the Clinton visit was "too little, too late."

The New York Times Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight blog, though projecting a big GOP day, lays out a scenario in which "Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House:"

So the rose-colored glasses scenario for Democrats looks something like this: throw out the generic ballot polls that don’t include cellphones. And then throw out Gallup, because there is something weird about the way its likely voter model is behaving this cycle.

The average of the nine remaining generic ballot polls in the table above is a Republican advantage of 3.9 points.

Democrats could possibly hold the House with a number like that one, although they’d be underdogs to do so. Most likely, they’d need another point or two. Where could they get it?
 

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