(WHAS11) – With Governor Steve Beshear holding a consistent, commanding lead in different polls of the Kentucky governor's race, both Democrat and Republican strategists suggest that the race is largely over.
A Public Policy Polling survey released on Tuesday showed Beshear with a 27 point lead over Republican challenger David Williams:
Beshear(D) 55%
Williams (R) 28%
Galbraith (I) 10%
One month ago, a WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll showed Beshear with a 24 point lead in race.
"You just don't see how you can reverse that," said veteran Republican campaign strategist Ted Jackson, who is not affiliated with Williams' campaign. "It is two months yet. Certainly something could happen but it would certainly have to be something very dramatic."
"I think it is over," said Bob Gunnell, a veteran Democratic strategist who is not affiliated with the Beshear campaign.
"While Governor Beshear is proud to have the support of so many Kentuckians, he remains focused on his job as Governor and on creating jobs in every corner of the Commonwealth," said Beshear-Abramson campaign spokesman Matt Erwin.
Beshear is not letting up in his campaign commercials, a new ad debuted Tuesday with the governor characterizing a fiscally responsible record in his first term.
Williams ads, meanwhile, are nowhere to be seen. The analysts say disastrous polls have dried up the campaign cash and third party support Williams needs to spread his message.
"The national money is not going to come in," Gunnell said, "They are going to save their money for 2012."
"If they don't believe that there is a real chance to win, then the money is not going to be there," Jackson concurred.
Yet, Williams-Farmer Campaign Chairman, General Donald Storm, says the Republicans have "seen an uptick in fundraising the last couple of weeks and Sen. Williams is getting a good response to his specific ideas for job creation and education reform on the campaign trail, while Gov. Beshear continues to avoid discussing any sort of an agenda for the future."
Williams has not been able to overcome negative press about his record and actions during two decades in the Kentucky Senate, Jackson said. Recent publicity about a plasma television installed first in his Senate President's office, his refusal to release his tax returns and his past gambling activity have crippled Williams' ability to mount a serious challenge, Jackson said.
And Jackson said Williams fumbled the biggest decision of the campaign, his choice for a running mate.
"Richie Farmer was a mistake, I think looking back on that," Jackson said. "The problems he's had."
In both the WHAS11/Courier-Journal poll and the PPP survey, Williams has unusually high disapproval ratings among voters.
Conversely, PPP says Beshear is the 4th most popular governor in the 42 states they have surveyed.
Jackson contends that is because there is not an effective messenger against Beshear.
"If this was a more competitive race I don't think Beshear's numbers would be that," Jackson explained, "David's poor numbers reflect positively on Beshear's positive numbers."
"I don't think Beshear is a wildly popular governor," Jackson continued, "I don't think people are marching around with signs enthusiastic about Beshear. He's not a dynamic guy. He's not charismatic. He's been an 'okay' governor."
"He's not flashy, he's not exciting," Gunnell acknowledged, "but he's dependable. That's what we're looking for."
And what about Beshear's coattails in the other statewide races?
The combination of a Beshear landslide, uninspired Republicans and straight ticket Democratic voters could tip the balance on the down ticket races, both analysts said.
"If you get beat by more than 10 percent, it has an adverse effect on the rest of the ticket," Gunnell said.
"That is the concern that it could be a sweep," Jackson said, "And again, that's generally what happens, if a Democrat wins at the top, they win all the constitutional offices."
Yet, Jackson thinks that GOP Attorney General candidate Todd P'Pool has a shot at unseating incumbent Jack Conway, despite Conway's double-digit lead in the PPP poll.
"I think Jack's numbers are soft," Jackson said, "And I think Todd is running a really great campaign."
"It really hurts Todd P'Pool's chances for Attorney General," Gunnell said, "which they thought it was a pick-up."
In his statement, Storm reminded voters that "it's not even Labor Day" and that the media is obsessed with polls.
Yet, perception can affect reality.
"If the perception holds that this race is over going into election day, then the voter turnout is going to be low on our side. and we can't give up any of our votes," Jackson said.
"I'm sure they're working hard," he continued, "These campaigns, you don't quit, you don't just go home."

