(WHAS11) An already unpredictable mid-term election year got another jolt this weekend with word that democrat Jack Conway has closed a 15 point gap in Kentucky’s U.S. senate race.
Three weeks after republican Rand Paul claimed that 15 point lead in the WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll, Conway has closed the gap and the race is now a statistical dead heat!
The poll of likely voters has Paul at 49% and Conway at 47%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Compared to the poll just 3 weeks ago, Conway is up 7 points, Paul is down 6. It’s the first time Conway has polled above 45% in the poll and the first time Paul has polled below 51%.
Facing an uphill battle in a conservative state, in a mid-term election considered especially challenging for democrats, and against a barrage of attack ads from conservative special interest groups, Conway had already termed himself as “the comeback kid.” The poll is a stunning reversal of another poll released by Survey USA over Labor Day weekend that showed Paul ahead, 55% to 40%.
Just three weeks ago, Conway led among women by a mere three points; he now leads by 16 points among women, 55% to 39%. Paul holds a 21 point lead among men. The resulting gender gap is a whopping 37 point margin.
In North Central Kentucky, Paul has led by as much as 22 points, but the Bluegrass Poll shows the race is now dead-even there, 49% each.