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Already unpredictable mid-term election year gets another jolt; Conway has closed gap

by Christine Wright

WHAS11.com

Posted on September 26, 2010 at 6:27 PM

(WHAS11)  An already unpredictable mid-term election year got another jolt this weekend with word that democrat Jack Conway has closed a 15 point gap in Kentucky’s U.S. senate race.
 

Three weeks after republican Rand Paul claimed that 15 point lead in the WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll, Conway has closed the gap and the race is now a statistical dead heat!
 

The poll of likely voters has Paul at 49% and Conway at 47%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.  Compared to the poll just 3 weeks ago, Conway is up 7 points, Paul is down 6.  It’s the first time Conway has polled above 45% in the poll and the first time Paul has polled below 51%.
 

Facing an uphill battle in a conservative state, in a mid-term election considered especially challenging for democrats, and against a barrage of attack ads from conservative special interest groups, Conway had already termed himself as “the comeback kid.”  The poll is a stunning reversal of another poll released by Survey USA over Labor Day weekend that showed Paul ahead, 55% to 40%.
Just three weeks ago, Conway led among women by a mere three points; he now leads by 16 points among women, 55% to 39%.  Paul holds a 21 point lead among men. The resulting gender gap is a whopping 37 point margin.
 

In North Central Kentucky, Paul has led by as much as 22 points, but the Bluegrass Poll shows the race is now dead-even there, 49% each.
 

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