UofL professor uses formula to predict NCAA tournament

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by Maggie Ruper

WHAS11.com

Posted on March 26, 2012 at 11:48 PM

Updated Tuesday, Mar 27 at 1:39 PM

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WHAS11) – University of Louisville meteorology professor Tim Dowling is using a formula to predict the winners in the NCAA tournament and it’s working so far.

“This year I decided that each round has its own personality. So, I thought, ‘Slow down. You don’t have to fill out your bracket quickly,’” said Dowling.

In ESPN’s Tournament Challenge, Dowling is in the 100th percentile.

“I’m tied for 1036th out of 6.4 million," said Dowling.

Dowling’s formula is broken down by the rounds. With 64 teams, Dowling’s formula called for avoiding Cinderella picks. At 32 teams, Dowling called it the “Calm Round” with favorites doing well. When it came to the Sweet 16, Dowling called it the “Coaches Round.”

“That’s where the best head coaches seem to win and Rick Pitino, of course, has won 10 out of 10," said Dowling.

In the Elite Eight, Dowling’s formula gave victories to the teams with the most heart. Dowling called the Final Four the “Transcendent Round.”

“It’s like starting the season over. You want to tap into all of the history of the teams that are playing, and it’s very hard to pick," said Dowling.

Dowling’s bracket, done according to his formula, has Louisville winning the final round. While his formula is successful so far, he admits there is luck involved.

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