Good Tuesday everyone! We continue to track our latest winter weather maker that is headed to Kentuckiana on tonight and into Wednesday morning. As mentioned yesterday, we've been in that pattern lately of storm systems that put much of Kentuckiana "right on the fence" between liquid and frozen precipitation and this one is no exception.
For areas northeast of Louisville, a winter storm warning is now in effect! A Winter Weather Advisory is out from late Tuesday evening through early Wednesday afternoon for much of Kentuckiana. Areas along and north of the parkways in Kentucky up into Southern Indiana are included with our far Southern Kentucky counties not in this due to a chilly rain expected.
An area of low pressure move through southeastern Kentucky tonight and into Wednesday morning. Once the heart of that system gets into our region into the overnight hours, that is when the moisture will spread northward and the wintry mix chances will increase.
This system's set-up looks more like an "overrunning event" which is more conducive to some freezing rain and ice accretion over parts of the area. With a warmer layer of air hanging just above the surface, the precipitation could be in the liquid form falling into a shallow layer of cold air at the surface. If temperatures are at or just below freezing, we could see some freezing rain in some sections of Kentuckiana so the surface temperatures will be critical.
Much of the model data continues to have the critical 32 degree line anywhere from right over the Ohio River, so anywhere north of that line could be looking at some icing as the moisture moves in. Where that temperature gradient sets up is CRITICAL and it could be a case where 10 to 15 miles from north to south across a particular county near where the freezing line is could be the difference between icing and just a cold rain. This shows how tricky and difficult it can be zoning in on specific locations.
Right now it looks like the best chance of seeing the freezing rain looks to be from northeast of Louisville through Southern Indiana, along and north of the Ohio River roughly. Father north it should be a bit more snow, with more rain in Southern Kentucky as the warm air wins out from top to bottom eventually.
Temperatures are expected to be anywhere from 29-31 degrees in the area shaded in red. That is where impacts to travel are most likely.
Our latest Futurecast data Tuesday morning has plenty of moisture over the region so we could be looking at a few inches of snow up north, some light ice and snow accumulations in the middle and some decent rain totals upwards of 1" plus for our far southern counties before this system quickly pulls out by the mid-morning Wednesday.
The thing to remember is that if you've lived in Kentuckiana for any length of time, you know these types of winter storms with a little bit of everything on the table can be quite challenging to forecast and pinpoint exactly what will happen in your backyard, but we'll be looking over the data closely and zeroing in on the best spots for the wintry mix tonight and into Wednesday. This is looking more and more like we will see an impact on the Wednesday morning commute so you need to plan ahead and be prepared in advance.
Stay with WHAS11 and the First Alert Storm Team for the latest on this system.
Meteorologists T.G. Shuck & Jared Heil